DAY 2 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
STREAMWIZE STORM PREDICTION
200 AM EST MAR 6 2006

VALID 07/12Z-08/12Z


THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT... TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE...MCI-JLN-20E MLC-ADM-15N FDR-AVK-20W HUT-25SE CNK--CON'T--MCI...

GNRL TSTMS ARE FORECAST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT... SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK... FROM WESTERN IA/EASTERN NE... SOUTH INTO FAR NORTHERN TX ...SEE MAP FOR DETAILS....

RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT-LAKES BY EARLY IN THE D2 PERIOD... TROF CURRENTLY AMPLIFYING INTO THE OFFSHORE REGION OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL CA IS PROGGED TO EJECT EAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS INTO THE D2 PERIOD...      

...EASTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS...MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...

AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD EAST THROUGH THE D2 PERIOD AS UPSTREAM SHRT-WV ENCROACHES REGION... ETA AND GFS SUGGEST WAA WILL DEVELOP IN CONJUNCTION WITH A BROADENING BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... INITIAL SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN KS... H85 LLJ 45-55KNTS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS BY EARLY AFTERNOON... BOUNDARY LAYER ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO BE ENHANCED FROM WESTERN/CENTRAL OK INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL KS... WHERE Td's IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50'S ARE POSSIBLE...

THE COMBINATION OF WAA AND STEEPENING GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS WILL AID MLCAPE 1000-1500j/kg. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND DERIVED HODOGRAPHS INDICATE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CURVATURE IN THE LOWER 1KM... STRONG 0-3KM SHEAR /40-50KNTS/ WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS... HOWEVER SOME QUESTIONS REMAIN WITH RESPECT TO ADEQUATE SFC CONVERGENCE AND FORECAST INVERSION. ETA INDICATES CONVECTION WILL BE SUPPRESSED BY LACK OF SFC CONVERGENCE AND INVERSION IN PLACE... GFS DEVELOPS CONVECTION INVOF DRYLINE INTO WESTERN OK AND INVOF WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST KS. BOTH ETA AND GFS SUGGEST ENHANCED OMEGA FORCING WITHIN EXIT REGION OF FOUR CORNERS SHRT-WV... BELIEVE ENHANCED ASCENT AND THERMODYNAMICS WILL OVERCOME INVERSION...

CONVECTION IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE INITIALLY... ADDITIONAL LINEAR FORCING AND FORECAST MID-LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WILL ENHANCE THREAT FOR SOME SMALL BOWS... PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. BELIEVE CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN LATE AS PRIMARY INSTABILITY AXIS STABILIZES.   
 

...EASTERN NE/WESTERN IA...

WAA IS PROGGED TO AID MID/UPPER 40TD'S INTO REGION... MAINLY AFTER 0Z/08... PLUME OF STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES 6-7c/km ARE FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD REGION... AIDING MUCAPE 1000j/kg... SOME ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE... HOWEVER NARROW DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AXIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL.

 

- WARNER 03/06/06