EXPERIMENTAL DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
STREAMWIZE STORM PREDICTION
300 AM EST FRI MAR 03 2006
VALID 07/12Z-11/12Z
THERE IS A 10% RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS... LOWER AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY... TENNESSEE VALLEY AND LOWER OHIO
VALLEY...
GFS/ECMWF AND CANADIAN HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH PROGRESSIVE LONG-WV PATTERN
FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. PERSISTENT LONG-WV TROF THAT HAS BEEN ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
IS FORECAST TO DEAMPLIFY AND LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
LONG-WV TROF IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
A SERIES OF SHORT-WV/S TRAVERSE MEAN TROF AND EXIT INTO THE PLAINS...
RETURN SLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO SHORT-WVS WILL AID BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION... ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP WITHIN BAROCLINIC
ZONE AND INVOF DEVELOPING WARM FRONT BY LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY... ORGANIZED CONVECTION APPEARS POSSIBLE
LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY WITH DRYLINE/COLD FRONT... FOR THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... THIS POTENTIAL WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST TO THE
TN AND LOWER OH VALLEYS...
THIS POTENTIAL WILL HAVE TO BE REASSESSED IN LATER OUTLOOKS FOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR A LARGER SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.
WARNER- 03/23/06
