STREAMWIZE WEEKLY THREATS FORECAST

STREAMWIZE LONG RANGE WEATHER THREATS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK
01242007
VALID: 01242007 to 02062007
OUTLOOK DISCUSSION

AREA A	FIRST IN A SERIES OF POLAR INTRUSIONS INTO GREAT-LAKES/NEW ENGLAND	SEE MAP
SLIGHT	MODERATE	HIGH
Moderate Wx Event	Significant Wx Event	Major Wx Event
Event(s) Date 012507 to 012707
Comments: VIGOROUS MANITOBA MAULER TYPE SHORT-WAVE IF FORECAST TO AMPLIFY LONG-WAVE TROF ACROSS THE GREAT-LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND AND ADVECT SEMI-ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO REGION
Downgrade	No-Change	Upgrade	New

AREA B	HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW	SEE MAP
SLIGHT	MODERATE	HIGH
Moderate Wx Event	Significant Wx Event	Major Wx Event
Event(s) Date 012507 to 012607
Comments: VERY COLD H85/H7 TEMPS ATOP RELATIVELY WARM LAKE TEMPS-- WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CONDITIONAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME DYNAMIC LIFT WILL ALLOW FOR HEAVY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW BANDS.
Downgrade	No-Change	Upgrade	New

AREA C	SERIES OF REINFORCING SEMI-ARCTIC AIR	SEE MAP
SLIGHT	MODERATE	HIGH
Moderate Wx Event	Significant Wx Event	Major Wx Event
Event(s) Date 012807 to 020107
Comments: SERIES OF SHORT-WV/S ARE FORECAST TO REINFORCE SEMI-ARCTIC AIRMASS. THE FIRST ON 1/28, THE SECOND ON 1/29 AND THIRD ON 1/31-2/1
Downgrade	No-Change	Upgrade	New

AREA D	MUCH LARGE ARCTIC INTRUSION POSSIBLE	SEE MAP
SLIGHT	MODERATE	HIGH
Moderate Wx Event	Significant Wx Event	Major Wx Event
Event(s) Date 020207 to 020507
Comments: OPERATIONAL MODELS AS WELL AS ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN INDICATING A MUCH LARGER ARCTIC INTRUSION INTO THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION.
Downgrade	No-Change	Upgrade	New

...WARNER... 01242007
NEXT UPDATE: 01252007

Explanation of new forecast format:

Area: The expected area where weather event is possible.

Risk: Slight, Moderate and High are the possibilities of the event attaining reality status.

Event Type: This category is subjective the basis has little comparison. There will be an attempt to base systems on climatology.

Status of outlook area: Indicating an upgrade, no change or downgrade in risk.

AREA A