STREAMWIZE WEATHER

FORECAST DISCUSSION

NEAR-TERM: TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
 

0Z/17 UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND LATEST VAPOR CHANNEL IMAGERY REVEALS A DEEPENING UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TX.. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW ANALYZED ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL MS IS DEEPENING AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST... VAD WIND PROFILES FROM BMX/FCC/MRX INDICATE STRENGTHENING LLJ... WITH 50-60KNT SLY LLJ IN PLACE.  

POWERFUL JET MAX ASSOCIATED WITH POTENT SYSTEM CURRENTLY ENTERING THE PACIFIC NW... FROM WASHINGTON SOUTHWARD TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.. A SERIES OF STRONG MID-LATITUDE CYCLONES ARE PROGGED TO ENTER THE FOUR-CORNERS VIA CALIFORNIA... THIS IS SUPPORTED MORE BY THE MID-RANGE MODELS AND IN THE MID-RANGE DISCUSSION.     

MID-RANGE: WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

OP-GFS/OP-ECMWF/CANADIAN/CANADIAN-ENS/GFS-ENS/ECMWF-ENS ALL EXHIBIT GENERAL CONTINUITY THROUGH MID-WEEK... INDICATING A PHASE OF THE CONTINENTAL (CONTINENTAL POLAR) AND PACIFIC/SUBROPICAL JET... DOMINANT PACIFIC JET WITH SOME INFLUENCES OF A NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE NAO DEVELOPING. THIS MAY PRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR FAST MOVING POTENT MID-LATITUDE

CYCLONES.

LONG RANGE:

GFS ENSEMBLE/ECMWF ENSEMBLE/CANADIAN ENSEMBLE -- (30 YEAR H500 DEPARTURE) -- (10 YEAR H500 DEPARTURE)--

GFS ENS USING FORECAST MEAN FOR THE 11 TO 15 DAY PERIOD (00Z JAN 28 THROUGH FEB 1)

ECMWF ENS/CANADIAN ENS USING FORECAST MEAN FOR THE 11 TO 15 DAY PERIOD (12Z JAN 27 THROUGH JAN 31)

MEAN TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO BE BELOW NORMAL WITH NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

ADVISORIES/WATCHES/WARNINGS

…WARNER...
01172010